This Remarkable Golden Spell Fuels Aston Villa's Unlikely Title Charge

A mere eight weeks prior that Morgan Rogers was standing on the Stadium of Light pitch, looking confused as his coach admonished him for not reading a pass in behind. Back then, as Villa went six without a win, it wasn't clear if his performances were a sign or the source of Villa's more general malaise.

“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”

The Sideline Explosion of Joy

On Sunday, however, the manager's outburst proved to be far more favourable. After Rogers swept in his second strike to restore Villa's lead, the Spanish tactician discarded his winter coat, opened his arms and roared. Villa continued to a tenth straight victory and despite not winning any of their first six games, now sit only three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.

Is Aston Villa Serious Title Contenders?

That’s a rather hard proposition to resolve. History, a general sense of this institution, indicates otherwise. Furthermore, they've rarely been entirely convincing during this run, while the positive results have piled up.

Per Opta, in only two games has the side registered an expected goals figure notably superior than their opponents. For a club which has just won ten consecutive victories, the Villans seem strangely fragile – however currently the margins are going in their favour.

The Rogers Recipe

Their recent policy seems to be to engage in a shootout with an opponent and then rely on their star man to bail them out with two precise efforts. This was the case away to Leeds, it occurred against West Ham, and again when facing the Red Devils.

Rogers' first goal stemmed from an exquisite effort, curled right inside the goal frame from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal acted as a slight scruffier version of goal number one capitalizing on a pass from Watkins.

“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”

A Predictable Yet Lethal Tool

How Long Can This Continue?

Reason suggests otherwise. During the latest victory, Manchester United had a greater number of attempts and more shots on target. Villa have won each of their last eight by just one goal. They have allowed goals in all but one of those fixtures.

A statistical correction might be the greatest opponent the club must confront over the coming weeks. Rogers, surely, cannot maintain blasting the football into the top corner week in, week out.

A Case for Belief

Perhaps there is another reality whereby, rather than results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players might still find their top level.

  • Ollie Watkins may begin to adding to his goal tally.
  • The attacking talent may rediscover the player he resembled during his peak.
  • The injured centre-backs are due to return from injury, bolstering an occasionally vulnerable backline.

This could contain the possibility for a sustained push, however, it is improbable cannot keep relying on one man.

Relishing the Unlikely

Yet, nobody expected this. Few believed Aston Villa would occupy in a Champions League place in December. And without a doubt two months ago, no one envisioned Rogers by the end of the year would be spearheading a championship pursuit while establishing himself as a vital player for the national team.

This remarkable period should be enjoyed exactly since it seems so surreal. When the hero faced the Villa faithful after the match leading the celebrations, it was clear to be loving the experience. As he deserves to. Such periods are rare in football and ought to be celebrated.

James Vasquez
James Vasquez

Maya Chen is a venture capital analyst with over a decade of experience in tech startups and investment strategy, specializing in emerging markets.